COVID-19 Vaccination

A Systems Thinking Model

As all the countries and regions are making an effort to combat the Coronavirus pandemic, this model is an attempt to better understand the activities that are needed to be coordinated a more efficient vaccination until herd immunity is reached.

Disclaimer: The model is not complete or tested to be used for planning. It is a framework as a guideline on how to think about various parameters and factors engaged. If you are a health authority, researcher or someone interested in further developing or use the model, please contact us at [email protected]


The following model has summarized the top factor and parameters that may impact a successful vaccination for a population.


The model suggests that in order to have a successful roll-out, 5 different threads need to be coordinated in parallel:

  1. Production Loop: To ensure there is a continuous supply for the vaccination with no delay
  2. Logistics Loop: Logistics loop includes all the physical activities needed post-production: From shipping to distribution, storage to injection of the vaccine.
  3. Policy Loop: As governments (local and national) are deeply and widely involved in containing the pandemic, the policies made from public health orders to deciding the source of vaccine, pricing, and other factors need to be considered and coordinated.
  4. Resource Availability: Aside from funding required to purchase vaccines in scale to cover the population, additional funding is required for Logistics activities.
  5. Public opinion: Even though it might sound a given fact that the public would be open to follow the public health orders and receive the vaccine to get back to normal life as soon as possible, the experience has shown that additional efforts are needed to earn the trust of the public.



  • The model is at a high level with the goal of understanding of dynamics each loop and interactions between them.
  • Each loop (or thread) needs to be further developed to understand all the factors and their impact. for instance, educating the public has not been covered in the model. Also, mechanisms to increase the number of medical professionals who can accelerate the injections, and more.
  • The model can be run in different time interval units to understand and predict short-term and long-term complications of the vaccine roll-out. Due to the time-sensitivity, a monthly interval to run and simulate the model might be appropriate. Depends on the size of each country, resources available, etc. the time interval for simulation can be different.
  • The model is published under Creative Commons License. Attribution to the model is required, commercial use it not allowed. Changes to the model and republishing it by referencing to this page and active HyperLink is permitted.

If you are interested in participating in expanding and simulating the model or use it for an actual vaccination effort, please contact [email protected]