Move to Miami

Modeling for sustainable growth

A Systems Thinking model to describe and predict Miami growth in the next decade

Miami has received a lot of attention as a destination for the workforce in 2020. Especially due to pandemic and also several issues that exposed themselves to the workforce in Silicon Valley, California, tech forces have migrated from the Bay Area to other cities. San Franciso city alone has lost 90,000 families from March to December 2020 (within 9 months).

While Miami has not been on top of the list of new destinations in competition with cities such as Seattle and Austin, the Mayor of Miami with the support of the local community of policymakers have been actively promoting the city and successfully convienced some of the top talents in the tech industry already move or consider Miami.

On this page, we have attempted to take the first step to use Systems Thinking for modeling a sustainable city with the goal of triggering a conversation on scenarios ahead of the city.

 

Notes:

  • The model is at a high level with the goal of understanding of dynamics of new talent moving to the city and how it may impact other elements in a start-up eco-system
  • Climate Change - as an item that the city is actively working on - has been considered in the model without elaborating. A sub-model must be dedicated to climate change and its impact on the city
  • The model can be run in different time interval units to understand and predict short-term and long-term growth. Due to the huge amount of attention the city has received, it might make sense to try and predict the model in yearly, 3 years, and a decade cycles.
  • Other variables must be added to the model and expanded to fully understand the short and long-term items. Examples are laws and regulations that will impact the start-up community. As an example, the start-up community has enjoyed the ban of a no-compete clause in California that has allowed new entrepreneurs to try new ideas and innovate without fear of conflict with previous employers. Also how city finance works to further support for important elements in the model: will the city be able to improve infrastructure to support the new residents (from roads to schools, hospitals, and other necessities of daily life) while tackling issues raised from Climate Change?

Next Steps:

The goal is to make this an open-source project that anyone can contribute. Here is the list of the next items that can be done:

  • Complete the model to run it in a simulation (Vensim or Anylogic)
  • Define the balancing and reinforcing loops in the model in detail.
  • Decide on unit intervals, yearly, 3 years, 10 years?)
  • By using simulation, try to answer questions such as how the city can keep the balance between infrastructure maintenance and upgrade to meet demand. How city finance will look like to maintain growth? How social issues such as gentrification that had a devastating impact on San Francisco and similar cities can be modeled and avoided?

The above model has been created for the fans of Systems Thinking and Sustainable Cities, there is no association with the city of Miami. If you are interested in participating in expanding and simulating the mode, please contact [email protected]